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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still