Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
