A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
